Election Uncertainty Remains, But Potential Outcomes Shrink11/04/2020


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Election Day is finally behind us, and we sincerely hope you voted. Voter turnout for a U.S. presidential election was the highest in modern history as a percentage of eligible voters, surpassing 2008 and 2016. Since the turnout was high and over half the ballots cast were mail-in ballots, it will take longer to count them all. While we wait for the votes to be tallied, we would like to remind everyone that we have been in this situation before, during the Bush/Gore election in 2000. We went through a five-week period of not knowing the winner after Election Day and the results were contested, going all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. However, during this five-week period the market fell only 4.24%, and this drop was largely driven by other factors, as we were amid the technology bubble popping.

While no one is calling winners at this point, we do have more clarity around possible outcomes. Neither a blue wave nor a red wave ever materialized, meaning neither party saw large shifts in voters. Overall, President Donald Trump and the Republicans appear to be showing better than polls suggested. Not surprisingly, the Democrats remain the majority in the House of Representatives. The Senate is still too close to call, but the votes are tilting toward Republicans retaining their majority. The presidential race between Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is also currently too close to call at this time, with votes in the pivotal states of Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin still being tallied.

For more insights, download our full commentary.

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Commentaries are published by Cetera Investment Management LLC, an SEC registered adviser owned by Cetera Financial Group. Cetera Investment Management provides market perspectives, portfolio guidance, model management, and other investment advice to its affiliated broker-dealers, dually registered broker-dealers and registered investment advisers.

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