As 2021 progresses, we continually monitor the recovery and the new administration’s policies and agenda. While we have said in the past that presidential administrations have some impact on the economy and markets, there are larger forces at play like global trade and monetary policy. However, presidential administrations do have some impacts so we are watching it closely for clues on what may lie ahead.
So far, the new administration has benefited from the current economic cycle/post-recession recovery, which has been front-end-loaded, and has seen a surge in good news on nearly all points – from key consumer metrics like sentiment and retail sales to many important business metrics. And let’s not forget the labor market is improving nearly every week. Looking ahead, however, the economy faces some headwinds as it is showing signs of transitioning from its current early cycle recovery to a mid-cycle one facing tougher year-over-year comparisons. Let’s also not forget rising inflationary pressures, China reducing its stimulus, and the potential of higher taxes, which we discuss within, may also impact this recovery.
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Commentaries are published by Cetera Investment Management LLC, an SEC registered adviser owned by Cetera Financial Group. Cetera Investment Management provides market perspectives, portfolio guidance, model management, and other investment advice to its affiliated broker-dealers, dually registered broker-dealers and registered investment advisers.
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